Italy U21 vs Belgium U21 prediction: Under 3.5 goals
Only 2.5 goals projected – a low-event game. The line lands in 70% of the model's runs. Price check: 1.42 is close to fair.
Your call: who wins?
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Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
A modest home lean: Italy U21 49%, Belgium U21 29%, draw 22%.
Recent form
Italy U21 – sample of six: W W W W W W, with six wins. Most recent: at France U21, 2–1 (won). The attack is running at 3.0 per game. 4 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
The last six for Belgium U21 read W D W W L W (four wins). Most recent: at Germany U21, 2–1 (won). Goals for and against: 1.0 and 0.5 a game. 4 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Italy U21 1.5, Belgium U21 1.0 – 2.5 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 52%, BTTS 52%.
The pick
The Mind pick: Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 70, bookmaker price around 1.42 against a fair 1.43. Likeliest score: Italy U21 1–0 Belgium U21. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Italy U21
last 6- W@ France U212–113 Nov
- Wv Poland U216–25 Oct
- W@ Armenia U211–01 Oct
- Wv Albania U211–08 Jun
- W@ Sweden U214–031 Mar
- Wv North Macedonia U214–026 Mar
Belgium U21
last 6- W@ Germany U212–113 Nov
- D@ Denmark U210–06 Oct
- Wv Wales U211–029 Sep
- Wv Belarus U211–024 Sep
- L@ Netherlands U211–230 Mar
- Wv Austria U211–027 Mar
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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AzerbaijanFrequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Italy U21 vs Belgium U21?
The Mind pick is Under 3.5 goals with a Mind Score of 70, priced around 1.42 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Italy U21 or Belgium U21?
The model gives Italy U21 49%, the draw 22% and Belgium U21 29%.
What is the likeliest score in Italy U21 vs Belgium U21?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Italy U21 1–0 Belgium U21.
How many goals are expected in Italy U21 vs Belgium U21?
Around 2.5 in total – over 2.5 rates 52% and both teams to score 52%.
When does Italy U21 vs Belgium U21 kick off?
Monday 16 November 2026, 18:15 WAT – Friendlies.