The track record
Every Mind pick settled on 90 minutes – calibrated by Mind Score band, then split by market and league. The good and the bad. Is the Mind Score honest? See the proof →
Calibration: does MS 70 land 7 times in 10?
A well-calibrated model lands its MS 70 picks about seven times in ten. Each band compares the average Mind Score with the real hit rate:
landed average Mind Score · Full Mind Score proof →
Hit rate by market
| # | Market | Picks | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Both teams to score: yes | 7376 | 57% |
| 2 | Match result (1X2) | 6270 | 62% |
| 3 | Double chance | 3112 | 77% |
| 4 | Over 2.5 goals | 2153 | 67% |
| 5 | Over 1.5 goals | 2071 | 75% |
| 6 | Under 3.5 goals | 1673 | 72% |
| 7 | Under 2.5 goals | 1215 | 59% |
| 8 | Both teams to score: no | 591 | 57% |
| 9 | Over 3.5 goals | 30 | 53% |
Hit rate by league
| # | League | Picks | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Major League Soccer USA | 241 | 66% |
| 2 | Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina | 174 | 67% |
| 3 | Championship England | 171 | 68% |
| 4 | FA Cup England | 138 | 62% |
| 5 | Serie A Brazil | 121 | 69% |
| 6 | La Liga Spain | 117 | 66% |
| 7 | Serie A Italy | 110 | 74% |
| 8 | Premier League England | 100 | 62% |
| 9 | UEFA Europa Conference League Europe | 98 | 70% |
| 10 | UEFA Europa League Europe | 95 | 65% |
| 11 | Süper Lig Turkey | 94 | 64% |
| 12 | Eredivisie Netherlands | 94 | 66% |
| 13 | Ligue 1 France | 90 | 66% |
| 14 | UEFA Champions League Europe | 86 | 77% |
| 15 | Pro League Saudi-Arabia | 86 | 69% |
| 16 | Primeira Liga Portugal | 85 | 58% |
| 17 | Bundesliga Germany | 81 | 67% |
| 18 | NPFL Nigeria | 63 | 59% |
| 19 | Premiership Scotland | 63 | 68% |
| 20 | DFB Pokal Germany | 43 | 58% |
| 21 | Copa Del Rey Spain | 42 | 71% |
| 22 | FKF Premier League Kenya | 30 | 63% |
| 23 | Coppa Italia Italy | 16 | 69% |
| 24 | Primera Nacional Argentina | 189 | 56% |
| 25 | National League England | 161 | 68% |
| 26 | Reserve League Argentina | 157 | 57% |
| 27 | USL Championship USA | 157 | 73% |
| 28 | Serie B Brazil | 154 | 64% |
| 29 | League Two England | 151 | 66% |
| 30 | National League South England | 147 | 68% |
| 31 | First Amateur Division Belgium | 146 | 62% |
| 32 | League One England | 146 | 64% |
| 33 | J3 League Japan | 145 | 59% |
| 34 | Primera A Colombia | 138 | 62% |
| 35 | Serie C Girone A Italy | 130 | 62% |
| 36 | Primera B Metropolitana Argentina | 128 | 69% |
| 37 | Segunda División Spain | 125 | 70% |
| 38 | Non League Premier Southern South England | 124 | 69% |
| 39 | 1. Lig Turkey | 124 | 73% |
| 40 | National League North England | 123 | 71% |
Leagues with 15 + settled picks. Click a column to sort.
Why every pick stays public
Any site can claim a win rate. FootyMind shows the working: every number on this page comes from settled picks, including the leagues and markets where the model is weakest. Picks lock at kick-off, settle automatically on the 90-minute score and are never edited – the day-by-day list is on the results page.
Read hit rate alongside price. Short-priced markets land more often and pay less; value picks chase longer prices and land less often. What happened last month says nothing certain about tomorrow – stake only what you can afford.
Frequently asked questions
What is FootyMind's hit rate?
15711 of 24493 settled Mind picks landed over 90 days – 64%. The record is complete; nothing is removed.
Where does the model do best?
At the moment, the UEFA Champions League (Europe): 77% across 86 picks. These league figures move from month to month.
Do higher Mind Scores really land more often?
They should, and the calibration rows above test it: each band compares the model's average probability with what actually happened.
How is a pick settled?
90 minutes plus stoppage time, the bookmaker standard. Extra time and penalties do not count; postponed or abandoned games are void.