Finland vs San Marino Prediction & Analysis: Finland or draw (Europe UEFA Nations League)
Finland v San Marino, the Europe UEFA Nations League, Sunday 15 November at 18:00 WAT. The model has Finland as favourites at 80% and its pick is Finland or draw.
Recent form, in numbers
Finland – sample of six: L L W D W L, with two wins. Most recent: at Albania, 0–2 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.7 and 1.0 a game.
The last six for San Marino read L L L L L L (zero wins). Most recent: v Belarus, 0–2 (lost). Just 0.3 goals per game in that run – a weak attacking signal. Zero clean sheets across the sample.
League context
Finland: 3rd, 7 points from 5. San Marino: 4th, 0 points. 7 points apart.
Past meetings
Most recent fixture (Sep 2026): San Marino 0–7 Finland.
The model's view
Win probabilities: Finland 80%, draw 13%, San Marino 7%. Expected goals: Finland 2.9, San Marino 0.8 – a total projection of 3.7. An open profile: over 2.5 rates 74%, BTTS 48%.
The Mind pick
Where the model lands: Finland or draw – Mind Score 93. Likeliest score in the grid: Finland 2–0 San Marino.
Secondary reads: over 1.5 goals at 89%.
Every market, the live score and the full working: Finland vs San Marino analysis.
A Mind Score is a probability, not a promise. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford to lose.
A Mind Score is a probability, not a promise. 18+ · Bet responsibly.
