Finland vs San Marino prediction: Finland or draw
Only a Finland loss beats this pick, and the model puts that at 7%. Mind Score 93.
Your call: who wins?
Fans' voteVote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
The model makes Finland strong home favourites (80%). Table: Finland 3rd (7 pts), San Marino 4th (0 pts).
Recent form
Finland – sample of six: L L W D W L, with two wins. Most recent: at Albania, 0–2 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.7 and 1.0 a game.
San Marino bring a L L L L L L line into this one: zero wins from six. Most recent: v Belarus, 0–2 (lost). Output has stalled at 0.3 goals a game. Zero clean sheets across the sample.
Head-to-head
Latest (Sep 2026): San Marino 0–7 Finland. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Finland 2.9, San Marino 0.8 – 3.7 in total. The grid favours goals: over 2.5 at 73%, both to score at 48%.
The pick
Pick: Finland or draw – Mind Score 93. Likeliest score: Finland 2–0 San Marino. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Finland
last 6- L@ Albania0–212 Nov
- L@ Belarus0–16 Oct
- Wv Albania2–13 Oct
- Dv Belarus0–029 Sep
- W@ San Marino7–026 Sep
- L@ Hungary1–25 Jun
San Marino
last 6- Lv Belarus0–212 Nov
- L@ Albania1–26 Oct
- L@ Belarus0–43 Oct
- Lv Albania0–329 Sep
- Lv Finland0–726 Sep
- L@ Azerbaijan1–29 Jun
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 26 Sep 2026San Marino0–7Finland
UEFA Nations League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Albania | 5 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 |  Belarus | 5 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 |  Finland | 5 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 5 | -17 | 0 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
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Czech RepublicFrequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Finland vs San Marino?
The Mind pick is Finland or draw with a Mind Score of 93.
Who is favourite, Finland or San Marino?
The model gives Finland 80%, the draw 13% and San Marino 7%.
What is the likeliest score in Finland vs San Marino?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Finland 2–0 San Marino.
How many goals are expected in Finland vs San Marino?
Around 3.7 in total – over 2.5 rates 73% and both teams to score 48%.
When does Finland vs San Marino kick off?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Bolt Arena – UEFA Nations League.