Europe UEFA Nations League Sun 15 Nov 2026 · Matmut Stadium Upcoming

France vs Türkiye prediction: France to win

The Mind pick France to win

The model lands a France win in 71% of simulations. Price check: 1.22 is shorter than fair – better as an accumulator leg.

71Mind Score Odds1.22 Score2–0

Your call: who wins?

Fans' vote

Vote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.

Price v probability

Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pick

Match result

1 · France1.2271% X · Draw7.4019% 2 · Türkiye12.7010%

Double chance

1X1.0490% 121.1181% X24.5629%

Goals 1.5

Over 1.51.0784% Under 1.56.7216%

Goals 2.5

Over 2.51.3266% Under 2.53.3034%

Goals 3.5

Over 3.51.8645% Under 3.52.0355%

Both teams to score

GG · Yes1.7456% NG · No2.0044%

Half-time result

HT 11.5550% HT X3.1036% HT 28.4014%

Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.

The analysis

by Ade Ola, FootyMind analyst

Win probabilities

France are clear favourites at 71% – the ratings gap plus home advantage does the work. Table: France 2nd (10 pts), Türkiye 4th (0 pts).

Recent form

France bring a L W D W W L line into this one: three wins from six. Most recent: at Italy, 1–3 (lost). Output is high: 2.0 goals a game across the sample.

Türkiye bring a L L L L L W line into this one: one win from six. Most recent: v Belgium, 1–2 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.0 and 2.5 a game. Zero clean sheets across the sample.

Head-to-head

Latest (Sep 2026): Türkiye 0–1 France. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.

Expected goals

Expected goals: France 2.2, Türkiye 0.9 – 3.1 in total. An open profile – over 2.5 66%, BTTS 56%.

The pick

Where the model lands: France to win – Mind Score 71, bookmaker price around 1.22 against a fair 1.41. Likeliest score: France 2–0 Türkiye. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.