Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification Thu 12 Nov 2026 · Stade de la Paix Full time

Ivory Coast vs Gambia prediction: Under 3.5 goals

The Mind pick · Landed ✓ Under 3.5 goals

3.1 projected goals keeps this under 3.5. The line lands in 64% of the model's runs. The 1.40 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.

64Mind Score Odds1.40 Score2–0

The crowd's call

Fans' vote

Voting closed at kick-off.

Price v probability

Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pick

Match result

1 · Ivory Coast1.1874% X · Draw6.3016% 2 · Gambia14.3010%

Double chance

1X1.0390% 121.0884% X24.4526%

Goals 1.5

Over 1.51.1580% Under 1.54.2020%

Goals 2.5

Over 2.51.6458% Under 2.52.1642%

Goals 3.5

Over 3.52.5636% Under 3.51.4064%

Both teams to score

GG · Yes2.4050% NG · No1.5150%

Half-time result

HT 11.5954% HT X2.6235% HT 211.1011%

Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.

The analysis

by Ade Ola, FootyMind analyst

Win probabilities

The model makes Ivory Coast strong home favourites (74%). Table: Ivory Coast 2nd (12 pts), Gambia 3rd (8 pts).

Recent form

Ivory Coast – sample of six: L W W L W L, with three wins. Most recent: v Cameroon, 0–1 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.3 and 0.8 a game. 3 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.

The last four for Gambia read W W L L (two wins). Most recent: at Ghana, 4–2 (won). The attack is running at 2.0 per game.

Expected goals

Expected goals: Ivory Coast 2.4, Gambia 0.7 – 3.1 in total. The grid favours goals: over 2.5 at 58%, both to score at 50%.

The pick (settled)

The pre-match Mind pick was Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 64, bookmaker price around 1.40 against a fair 1.57. Likeliest score: Ivory Coast 2–0 Gambia. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.