Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification Mon 16 Nov 2026 Upcoming

Sudan vs Senegal prediction: Under 3.5 goals

The Mind pick Under 3.5 goals

Only 2.5 goals projected – a low-event game. The line lands in 73% of the model's runs. Price check: 1.28 is shorter than fair – better as an accumulator leg.

73Mind Score Odds1.28 Score0–1

Your call: who wins?

Fans' vote

Vote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.

Price v probability

Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pick

Match result

1 · Sudan16.0020% X · Draw5.9513% 2 · Senegal1.1767%

Double chance

1X4.4033% 121.0987% X21.2580% · fair

Goals 1.5

Over 1.51.2472% Under 1.53.3428%

Goals 2.5

Over 2.51.8748% Under 2.51.8752%

Goals 3.5

Over 3.53.0827% Under 3.51.2873%

Both teams to score

GG · Yes2.9339% NG · No1.3461%

Half-time result

HT 112.7514% HT X2.4642% HT 21.6044%

Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.

The analysis

by Ade Ola, FootyMind analyst

Win probabilities

The away side carries the numbers: Senegal 67%, Sudan 20%. Table: Sudan 2nd (8 pts), Senegal 1st (16 pts).

Recent form

The last three for Sudan read L L W (one win). Most recent: at Senegal, 1–4 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.0 and 2.7 a game.

Senegal – sample of six: W W W D D W, with four wins. Most recent: v Sudan, 4–1 (won). The attack is running at 2.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.

Head-to-head

Latest (Nov 2026): Senegal 4–1 Sudan. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.

Expected goals

Expected goals: Sudan 0.7, Senegal 1.8 – 2.5 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 48%, BTTS 39%.

The pick

Pick: Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 73, bookmaker price around 1.28 against a fair 1.37. Likeliest score: Sudan 0–1 Senegal. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.