Plymouth vs Burton Albion prediction: Plymouth to win
The model lands a Plymouth win in 66% of simulations. Plymouth were beaten last time (LWWD); Burton Albion were beaten last time (LLWL). Price check: 1.57 is close to fair.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
Plymouth are clear favourites at 66% – the ratings gap plus home advantage does the work. Table: Plymouth 5th (23 pts), Burton Albion 15th (17 pts).
Recent form
The last six for Plymouth read W W W W L W (five wins). Most recent: v Crystal Palace U21, 5–1 (won). Output is high: 2.8 goals a game across the sample.
The last six for Burton Albion read D D L D W L (one win). Most recent: v Nottingham Forest U21, 1–1 (drawn). Goals for and against: 1.7 and 1.8 a game. Zero clean sheets across the sample.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Plymouth 2.2, Burton Albion 0.9 – 3.1 in total. An open profile – over 2.5 58%, BTTS 56%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Plymouth to win – Mind Score 66, bookmaker price around 1.57 against a fair 1.52. Likeliest score: Plymouth 2–0 Burton Albion. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Plymouth
last 6- Wv Crystal Palace U215–122 Sep
- W@ Blackpool4–219 Sep
- Wv Barnsley3–012 Sep
- W@ Doncaster3–25 Sep
- L@ Leicester0–21 Sep
- Wv Bradford2–029 Aug
Burton Albion
last 6- Dv Nottingham Forest U211–122 Sep
- Dv Mansfield Town2–219 Sep
- L@ Oxford United0–312 Sep
- Dv Cambridge United2–25 Sep
- Wv AFC Wimbledon4–12 Sep
- L@ Notts County1–229 Aug
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
League One table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Huddersfield | 14 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Stockport County | 14 | +12 | 26 |
| 3 |  Oxford United | 13 | +11 | 26 |
| 4 |  Luton | 14 | +6 | 24 |
| 5 |  Plymouth | 14 | +2 | 23 |
| 6 |  Reading | 14 | +10 | 22 |
| 7 |  Bradford | 13 | +2 | 22 |
| 8 |  Cambridge United | 14 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |  Leicester | 13 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Mansfield Town | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Wycombe | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Burton Albion | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 12 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Notts County | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  AFC Wimbledon | 13 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 |  Blackpool | 12 | -4 | 12 |
| 20 |  Doncaster | 13 | -8 | 12 |
| 21 |  Wigan | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 |  Peterborough | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 23 |  Barnsley | 12 | -10 | 9 |
| 24 |  Bromley | 13 | -20 | 9 |
More League One predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
The Mind pick is Plymouth to win with a Mind Score of 66, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Plymouth or Burton Albion?
The model gives Plymouth 66%, the draw 21% and Burton Albion 13%.
What is the likeliest score in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Plymouth 2–0 Burton Albion.
How many goals are expected in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Around 3.1 in total – over 2.5 rates 58% and both teams to score 56%.
When does Plymouth vs Burton Albion kick off?
Saturday 26 September 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Home Park – League One.