Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon prediction: Plymouth to win
Projected goals favour Plymouth: 1.7 against 0.7. Plymouth were beaten last time (LWWD); AFC Wimbledon's latest result was a win (WLLL). The 1.44 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
The model makes Plymouth strong home favourites (65%). Table: Plymouth 5th (23 pts), AFC Wimbledon 18th (13 pts).
Recent form
Plymouth bring a D W L W W W line into this one: four wins from six. Most recent: at Newport County, 2–2 (drawn). Output is high: 2.7 goals a game across the sample.
The last six for AFC Wimbledon read D D D W W L (two wins). Most recent: v Barnet, 0–0 (drawn). Just 0.8 goals per game in that run – a weak attacking signal. 4 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Plymouth 1.7, AFC Wimbledon 0.7 – 2.4 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 43%, BTTS 53%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Plymouth to win – Mind Score 65, bookmaker price around 1.44 against a fair 1.55. Likeliest score: Plymouth 1–0 AFC Wimbledon. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Plymouth
last 6- D@ Newport County2–26 Oct
- W@ Leyton Orient2–03 Oct
- Lv Burton Albion0–126 Sep
- Wv Crystal Palace U215–122 Sep
- W@ Blackpool4–219 Sep
- Wv Barnsley3–012 Sep
AFC Wimbledon
last 6- Dv Barnet0–06 Oct
- D@ Cambridge United1–126 Sep
- Dv Milton Keynes Dons0–017 Sep
- Wv Doncaster1–012 Sep
- W@ Bromley2–07 Sep
- L@ Burton Albion1–42 Sep
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
League One table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Huddersfield | 14 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Stockport County | 14 | +12 | 26 |
| 3 |  Oxford United | 13 | +11 | 26 |
| 4 |  Luton | 14 | +6 | 24 |
| 5 |  Plymouth | 14 | +2 | 23 |
| 6 |  Reading | 14 | +10 | 22 |
| 7 |  Bradford | 13 | +2 | 22 |
| 8 |  Cambridge United | 14 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |  Leicester | 13 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Mansfield Town | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Wycombe | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Burton Albion | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 12 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Notts County | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  AFC Wimbledon | 13 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 |  Blackpool | 12 | -4 | 12 |
| 20 |  Doncaster | 13 | -8 | 12 |
| 21 |  Wigan | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 |  Peterborough | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 23 |  Barnsley | 12 | -10 | 9 |
| 24 |  Bromley | 13 | -20 | 9 |
More League One predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
The Mind pick is Plymouth to win with a Mind Score of 65, priced around 1.44 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Plymouth or AFC Wimbledon?
The model gives Plymouth 65%, the draw 21% and AFC Wimbledon 15%.
What is the likeliest score in Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Plymouth 1–0 AFC Wimbledon.
How many goals are expected in Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Around 2.4 in total – over 2.5 rates 43% and both teams to score 53%.
When does Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Saturday 10 October 2026, 12:30 WAT, at Home Park – League One.