Aurrerá Vitoria vs Beasain prediction: Over 1.5 goals
The goal projection sits at 2.8, clear of the 1.5 line. Probability 73%. The 1.29 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
Your call: who wins?
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Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
A near-even split in the model – home 38%, draw 22%, away 40%. Table: Aurrerá Vitoria 2nd (22 pts), Beasain 9th (14 pts).
Recent form
Aurrerá Vitoria – sample of six: W W L W L W, with four wins. Most recent: at Aretxabaleta, 3–0 (won). Goals for and against: 1.5 and 1.8 a game.
Beasain bring a W L D W W L line into this one: three wins from six. Most recent: v Amurrio Club, 6–0 (won). Output is high: 2.7 goals a game across the sample.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Aurrerá Vitoria 1.4, Beasain 1.4 – 2.8 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 49%, BTTS 57%.
The pick
Pick: Over 1.5 goals – Mind Score 73, bookmaker price around 1.29 against a fair 1.36. Likeliest score: Aurrerá Vitoria 1–2 Beasain. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Aurrerá Vitoria
last 6- W@ Aretxabaleta3–08 Nov
- Wv Santurtzi2–131 Oct
- L@ San Ignacio0–524 Oct
- Wv Real Sociedad III2–017 Oct
- L@ Leioa0–410 Oct
- Wv Erandio2–13 Oct
Beasain
last 6- Wv Amurrio Club6–07 Nov
- L@ Eibar III1–31 Nov
- Dv R. Union B1–124 Oct
- W@ Pasaia KE4–117 Oct
- Wv Lagun Onak4–210 Oct
- L@ Derio0–24 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 4 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Leioa | 10 | +16 | 22 |
| 2 |  Aurrerá Vitoria | 10 | +3 | 22 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Alavés III | 10 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Real Sociedad III | 10 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 |  Derio | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 6 |  Durango | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 7 |  Aretxabaleta | 10 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Touring | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Beasain | 10 | +6 | 14 |
| 10 |  San Ignacio | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Eibar III | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sodupe | 10 | -8 | 14 |
| 13 |  Lagun Onak | 10 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 |  R. Union B | 10 | -6 | 10 |
| 15 |  Pasaia KE | 10 | -9 | 10 |
| 16 |  Santurtzi | 10 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 |  Erandio | 10 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Amurrio Club | 10 | -21 | 1 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 4 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Aurrerá Vitoria vs Beasain?
The Mind pick is Over 1.5 goals with a Mind Score of 73, priced around 1.29 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Aurrerá Vitoria or Beasain?
The model gives Aurrerá Vitoria 38%, the draw 22% and Beasain 40%.
What is the likeliest score in Aurrerá Vitoria vs Beasain?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Aurrerá Vitoria 1–2 Beasain.
How many goals are expected in Aurrerá Vitoria vs Beasain?
Around 2.8 in total – over 2.5 rates 49% and both teams to score 57%.
When does Aurrerá Vitoria vs Beasain kick off?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 4.