Leioa vs Real Sociedad III prediction: Over 1.5 goals
An open game on paper: 3.4 projected goals. Probability 79%. Price check: 1.24 is close to fair.
Your call: who wins?
Fans' voteVote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
Leioa edge it at home, 53% to 25%, with the draw on 22%. Table: Leioa 1st (22 pts), Real Sociedad III 4th (18 pts).
Recent form
Leioa bring a W W W D W W line into this one: five wins from six. Most recent: v Touring, 4–2 (won). The attack is running at 3.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Real Sociedad III bring a W W D L W W line into this one: four wins from six. Most recent: v Erandio, 4–1 (won). Output is high: 2.2 goals a game across the sample.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Leioa 2.1, Real Sociedad III 1.3 – 3.4 in total. An open profile – over 2.5 58%, BTTS 60%.
The pick
Pick: Over 1.5 goals – Mind Score 79, bookmaker price around 1.24 against a fair 1.26. Likeliest score: Leioa 2–1 Real Sociedad III. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Leioa
last 6- Wv Touring4–27 Nov
- W@ Erandio3–231 Oct
- Wv Sodupe3–024 Oct
- D@ Deportivo Alavés III2–217 Oct
- Wv Aurrerá Vitoria4–010 Oct
- W@ Amurrio Club5–04 Oct
Real Sociedad III
last 6- Wv Erandio4–17 Nov
- W@ Sodupe3–031 Oct
- Dv Deportivo Alavés III2–225 Oct
- L@ Aurrerá Vitoria0–217 Oct
- Wv Amurrio Club1–010 Oct
- W@ Eibar III3–24 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 4 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Leioa | 10 | +16 | 22 |
| 2 |  Aurrerá Vitoria | 10 | +3 | 22 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Alavés III | 11 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 |  Real Sociedad III | 10 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 |  Touring | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 6 |  Derio | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 7 |  San Ignacio | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 8 |  Durango | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 9 |  Eibar III | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 10 |  Aretxabaleta | 11 | -2 | 17 |
| 11 |  Sodupe | 11 | -7 | 17 |
| 12 |  Beasain | 10 | +6 | 14 |
| 13 |  Lagun Onak | 10 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 |  R. Union B | 10 | -6 | 10 |
| 15 |  Pasaia KE | 11 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 |  Santurtzi | 11 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 |  Erandio | 11 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 |  Amurrio Club | 10 | -21 | 1 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 4 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Leioa vs Real Sociedad III?
The Mind pick is Over 1.5 goals with a Mind Score of 79, priced around 1.24 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Leioa or Real Sociedad III?
The model gives Leioa 53%, the draw 22% and Real Sociedad III 25%.
What is the likeliest score in Leioa vs Real Sociedad III?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Leioa 2–1 Real Sociedad III.
How many goals are expected in Leioa vs Real Sociedad III?
Around 3.4 in total – over 2.5 rates 58% and both teams to score 60%.
When does Leioa vs Real Sociedad III kick off?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 4.