Pro Patria vs Castellanzese prediction: Under 3.5 goals
The model sees few chances: 2.2 goals in total. Mind Score 76. Pro Patria's form is mixed (DLD, 0 W 2 D 1 L); Castellanzese were beaten last time (LLD). Price check: 1.27 is close to fair.
Your call: who wins?
Fans' voteVote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
Pro Patria edge it at home, 55% to 19%, with the draw on 26%. Table: Pro Patria 3rd (21 pts), Castellanzese 4th (19 pts).
Recent form
Pro Patria – sample of six: D L D D W W, with two wins. Most recent: v Pistoiese, 0–0 (drawn). Just 0.8 goals per game in that run – a weak attacking signal.
The last six for Castellanzese read L L D W W W (three wins). Most recent: v USD Casatese, 0–1 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.3 and 1.2 a game.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Pro Patria 1.3, Castellanzese 0.9 – 2.2 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 44%, BTTS 51%.
The pick
Where the model lands: Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 76, bookmaker price around 1.27 against a fair 1.31. Likeliest score: Pro Patria 1–0 Castellanzese. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Pro Patria
last 6- Dv Pistoiese0–08 Nov
- L@ Pavia0–11 Nov
- D@ Leon1–128 Oct
- Dv Correggese1–125 Oct
- W@ USD Casatese2–118 Oct
- Wv Sant'Angelo1–011 Oct
Castellanzese
last 6- Lv USD Casatese0–18 Nov
- L@ Pistoiese2–41 Nov
- Dv Varesina1–125 Oct
- W@ Correggese2–018 Oct
- Wv Arconatese1–011 Oct
- W@ Sant'Angelo2–14 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone D table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 11 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Lentigione | 11 | +8 | 24 |
| 3 |  Pro Patria | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 4 |  Castellanzese | 11 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 |  USD Casatese | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Pro Sesto | 11 | +12 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 |  Solbiatese | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Sant'Angelo | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Crema | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Città di Varese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Pavia | 11 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Correggese | 11 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 |  Varesina | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 |  Pontedera | 11 | -16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Arconatese | 11 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Oltrepò | 11 | -19 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone D predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Pro Patria vs Castellanzese?
The Mind pick is Under 3.5 goals with a Mind Score of 76, priced around 1.27 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Pro Patria or Castellanzese?
The model gives Pro Patria 55%, the draw 26% and Castellanzese 19%.
What is the likeliest score in Pro Patria vs Castellanzese?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Pro Patria 1–0 Castellanzese.
How many goals are expected in Pro Patria vs Castellanzese?
Around 2.2 in total – over 2.5 rates 44% and both teams to score 51%.
When does Pro Patria vs Castellanzese kick off?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Carlo Speroni – Serie D Girone D.