Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense prediction: Flamengo to win
Flamengo rate better at both ends – 2.5 expected for, 0.9 against. Flamengo are unbeaten across their last 3 (WWW). The 1.22 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
Your call: who wins?
Fans' voteVote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
The model makes Flamengo strong home favourites (72%). Table: Flamengo 1st (76 pts), Atletico Paranaense 5th (54 pts).
Recent form
The last six for Flamengo read W W W D W D (four wins). Most recent: v Gremio, 3–1 (won). The attack is running at 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Atletico Paranaense bring a L L D L W D line into this one: one win from six. Most recent: v Vasco DA Gama, 1–3 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.3 and 1.8 a game. Zero clean sheets across the sample.
Head-to-head
Latest (May 2026): Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Flamengo. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Flamengo 2.5, Atletico Paranaense 0.9 – 3.4 in total. The grid favours goals: over 2.5 at 65%, both to score at 55%.
The pick
Where the model lands: Flamengo to win – Mind Score 72, bookmaker price around 1.22 against a fair 1.40. Likeliest score: Flamengo 2–0 Atletico Paranaense. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Flamengo
last 6- Wv Gremio3–14 Nov
- W@ Vasco DA Gama4–130 Oct
- Wv Atletico-MG3–227 Oct
- Dv Estudiantes L.P.0–023 Oct
- W@ Bahia3–018 Oct
- D@ Estudiantes L.P.0–016 Oct
Atletico Paranaense
last 6- Lv Vasco DA Gama1–34 Nov
- L@ Gremio0–230 Oct
- D@ Vitoria1–124 Oct
- Lv Palmeiras0–217 Oct
- W@ Chapecoense-sc4–112 Oct
- Dv Atletico-MG2–29 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 May 2026Atletico Paranaense1–1Flamengo
Serie A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
The Mind pick is Flamengo to win with a Mind Score of 72, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Flamengo or Atletico Paranaense?
The model gives Flamengo 72%, the draw 17% and Atletico Paranaense 12%.
What is the likeliest score in Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Flamengo 2–0 Atletico Paranaense.
How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Around 3.4 in total – over 2.5 rates 65% and both teams to score 55%.
When does Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Thursday 19 November 2026, 00:30 WAT, at Estádio do Maracanã – Serie A.