Gremio vs Bahia prediction: Over 1.5 goals
Gremio (1.4) plus Bahia (1.3) puts 2.7 goals on the board. Mind Score 77. Gremio have taken 3 wins from 5 (DLWWW). Price check: 1.22 is shorter than fair – better as an accumulator leg.
Your call: who wins?
Fans' voteVote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
The ratings barely separate them: Gremio 39%, draw 25%, Bahia 36%. Table: Gremio 18th (37 pts), Bahia 6th (53 pts).
Recent form
Gremio – sample of six: D L W W W L, with three wins. Most recent: at Atletico-MG, 1–1 (drawn). Goals for and against: 1.5 and 1.3 a game. 3 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Bahia – sample of six: L W D L W L, with two wins. Most recent: at Cruzeiro, 2–3 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.2 and 1.7 a game.
Head-to-head
Latest (May 2026): Bahia 1–1 Gremio. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Gremio 1.4, Bahia 1.3 – 2.7 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 53%, BTTS 60%.
The pick
Pick: Over 1.5 goals – Mind Score 77, bookmaker price around 1.22 against a fair 1.31. Likeliest score: Gremio 2–1 Bahia. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Gremio
last 6- D@ Atletico-MG1–17 Nov
- L@ Flamengo1–34 Nov
- Wv Atletico-MG2–01 Nov
- Wv Atletico Paranaense2–030 Oct
- W@ Coritiba1–026 Oct
- Lv Cruzeiro2–418 Oct
Bahia
last 6- L@ Cruzeiro2–36 Nov
- Wv Sao Paulo3–229 Oct
- D@ Santos1–125 Oct
- Lv Flamengo0–318 Oct
- Wv Mirassol1–011 Oct
- L@ Palmeiras0–19 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 May 2026Bahia1–1Gremio
Serie A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Gremio vs Bahia?
The Mind pick is Over 1.5 goals with a Mind Score of 77, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Gremio or Bahia?
The model gives Gremio 39%, the draw 25% and Bahia 36%.
What is the likeliest score in Gremio vs Bahia?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Gremio 2–1 Bahia.
How many goals are expected in Gremio vs Bahia?
Around 2.7 in total – over 2.5 rates 53% and both teams to score 60%.
When does Gremio vs Bahia kick off?
Thursday 19 November 2026, 01:30 WAT, at Arena do Grêmio – Serie A.