Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker prediction: Under 3.5 goals
The model sees few chances: 2.1 goals in total. Probability 85%. Ulinzi Stars's form is mixed (DDL, 0 W 2 D 1 L); Tusker arrive off a defeat (LLD). Mind Score 85.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
Tusker rate as strong favourites despite travelling – 63% in the model. Table: Ulinzi Stars 12th (7 pts), Tusker 14th (6 pts).
Recent form
The last six for Ulinzi Stars read W D W W W L (four wins). Most recent: v Mathare United, 2–1 (won). Goals for and against: 1.2 and 0.7 a game. 3 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
The last six for Tusker read W W D W L L (three wins). Most recent: v Mara Sugar, 3–1 (won). Goals for and against: 1.3 and 1.0 a game.
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ulinzi Stars 1 wins, Tusker 1, draws 0; 2.5 goals per game. Latest (May 2026): Ulinzi Stars 2–0 Tusker. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Ulinzi Stars 0.5, Tusker 1.5 – 2.1 in total. A low-event profile – under 2.5 rates 66%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 85. Likeliest score: Ulinzi Stars 0–1 Tusker. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Ulinzi Stars
last 6- Wv Mathare United2–12 Oct
- Dv Mara Sugar0–011 Sep
- W@ Posta Rangers FC1–031 May
- Wv Tusker2–027 May
- Wv Mathare United2–123 May
- Lv AFC Leopards0–213 May
Tusker
last 6- Wv Mara Sugar3–12 Oct
- Wv Al Ahli Wad Medani1–012 Sep
- D@ Al Ahli Wad Medani2–26 Sep
- Wv KVZ2–01 Aug
- Lv Rayon Sports0–129 Jul
- L@ Al Hilal Omdurman0–226 Jul
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 27 May 2026Ulinzi Stars2–0Tusker
- 3 May 2026Ulinzi Stars1–2Tusker
FKF Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  APS Bomet | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 7 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Migori Youth | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Bandari | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 |  Ulinzi Stars | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
More FKF Premier League predictions
League page →
Police1Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
The Mind pick is Under 3.5 goals with a Mind Score of 85.
Who is favourite, Ulinzi Stars or Tusker?
The model gives Ulinzi Stars 14%, the draw 23% and Tusker 63%.
What is the likeliest score in Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Ulinzi Stars 0–1 Tusker.
How many goals are expected in Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
Around 2.1 in total – over 2.5 rates 34% and both teams to score 40%.
When does Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker kick off?
Sunday 11 October 2026, 12:00 WAT – FKF Premier League.