England FA Cup Sat 19 Sep 2026 Full time

Merthyr Town

DLWWD

1–1

Half-time 0–0

Truro City

LWWDD

39%Merthyr Town21%Draw40%Truro City

Merthyr Town vs Truro City prediction: Over 1.5 goals

The Mind pick · Landed ✓ Over 1.5 goals

Merthyr Town (1.3) plus Truro City (1.4) puts 2.7 goals on the board. Probability 75%. Merthyr Town won most recently (WWL); Truro City carry a 4-match unbeaten sequence (WWWW). Mind Score 75.

75Mind Score Odds– Score1–2

The crowd's call

Fans' vote

Voting closed at kick-off.

Price v probability

Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pick

Match result

1 · Merthyr Town2.5539% X · Draw3.2521% 2 · Truro City2.4040%

Double chance

1X1.4460% 121.2579% X21.4461%

Goals 1.5

Over 1.51.3475% · fair Under 1.53.9525% · fair

Goals 2.5

Over 2.51.9050% Under 2.51.9050%

Goals 3.5

Over 3.53.5728% · fair Under 3.51.3972% · fair

Both teams to score

GG · Yes2.0549% · fair NG · No1.9551% · fair

Half-time result

HT 13.1028% HT X2.2042% HT 23.0029%

Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.

The analysis

by Ade Ola, FootyMind analyst

Win probabilities

A near-even split in the model – home 39%, draw 21%, away 40%.

Recent form

The last six for Merthyr Town read D W W L D D (two wins). Most recent: at Scarborough Athletic, 0–0 (drawn). Goals for and against: 1.0 and 0.8 a game.

Truro City – sample of six: D D W W L W, with three wins. Most recent: v Salisbury, 1–1 (drawn). Output is high: 2.0 goals a game across the sample.

Expected goals

Expected goals: Merthyr Town 1.3, Truro City 1.4 – 2.7 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 50%, BTTS 49%.

The pick (settled)

The pre-match Mind pick was Over 1.5 goals – Mind Score 75. Likeliest score: Merthyr Town 1–2 Truro City. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.