Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia prediction: Under 3.5 goals
2.2 projected goals keeps this under 3.5. Probability 82%. Mind Score 82.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
GOR Mahia shade it on the road, 48% to 28%. Table: Homeboyz 17th (5 pts), GOR Mahia 1st (13 pts).
Recent form
Homeboyz – sample of six: D W L D D L, with one win. Most recent: v Ulinzi Stars, 1–1 (drawn). Output has stalled at 0.8 goals a game.
GOR Mahia – sample of six: W L L W L W, with three wins. Most recent: v Murang'a SEAL, 4–2 (won). Goals for and against: 1.3 and 1.8 a game.
Head-to-head
Latest (May 2026): Homeboyz 0–1 GOR Mahia. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Homeboyz 0.9, GOR Mahia 1.3 – 2.2 in total. A low-event profile – under 2.5 rates 62%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 82. Likeliest score: Homeboyz 0–1 GOR Mahia. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Homeboyz
last 6- Dv Ulinzi Stars1–118 Oct
- W@ Mombasa Elite1–014 Oct
- L@ AFC Leopards0–22 Oct
- D@ Police1–131 May
- D@ Kariobangi Sharks2–223 May
- L@ Murang'a SEAL0–110 May
GOR Mahia
last 6- Wv Murang'a SEAL4–213 Oct
- Lv KCB1–22 Oct
- L@ Pyramids FC1–513 Sep
- Wv Bandari1–011 Sep
- Lv Pyramids FC0–26 Sep
- W@ APS Bomet1–04 Sep
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 3 May 2026Homeboyz0–1GOR Mahia
FKF Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  APS Bomet | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 7 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Migori Youth | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Bandari | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 |  Ulinzi Stars | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
More FKF Premier League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia?
The Mind pick is Under 3.5 goals with a Mind Score of 82.
Who is favourite, Homeboyz or GOR Mahia?
The model gives Homeboyz 28%, the draw 24% and GOR Mahia 48%.
What is the likeliest score in Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Homeboyz 0–1 GOR Mahia.
How many goals are expected in Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia?
Around 2.2 in total – over 2.5 rates 38% and both teams to score 44%.
When does Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia kick off?
Wednesday 28 October 2026, 12:00 WAT – FKF Premier League.