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Price v Mind Score

Value picks today

Selections where the bookmaker pays clearly more than the model's fair price. They land less often than the main picks and pay more when they do – a long-run approach for small, level stakes.

Tips by · FootyMind analystModel refreshed 14 Nov 2026, 02:52 WAT · Settled publicly on the track record

NigeriaNPFLHomeDrawAwayMind pick

Doma UnitedBarau FC 471835xG 1.3–1.0 Value pickAway winMS 35@4.20

KenyaFKF Premier LeagueHomeDrawAwayMind pick

Nairobi UnitedMara Sugar 432433xG 2.1–1.9 Value pickBoth teams scoreMS 63@2.13
Ulinzi StarsMigori Youth 332443xG 0.9–1.1 Value pickAway winMS 43@2.72
APS BometBandari 462430xG 1.2–0.9 Value pickBoth teams scoreMS 52@2.16

BrazilSerie AHomeDrawAwayMind pick

MirassolAtletico-MG 632116xG 1.9–0.8 Value pickHome winMS 63@2.00

FranceCoupe De FranceHomeDrawAwayMind pick

VersaillesRodez 185428xG 1.2–1.4 Value pickDrawMS 54@3.40
TourcoingReims 131374xG 1.2–3.0 Value pickBoth teams scoreMS 61@1.87

EuropeUEFA Nations LeagueHomeDrawAwayMind pick

KosovoIsrael 642115xG 1.8–0.7 Value pickHome winMS 64@1.80
Northern IrelandUkraine 472429xG 1.1–0.8 Value pickHome winMS 47@2.50
RomaniaPoland 211960xG 1.1–2.0 Value pickAway winMS 60@1.85

WorldFriendliesHomeDrawAwayMind pick

FT Argentina1Uruguay2 622414 Pick landed ✓Both teams scoreMS 57@2.00
81' Colombia1Chile0 702010 Value pickBoth teams scoreMS 53@2.10
45' Peru1Bolivia0 602416 Value pickBoth teams scoreMS 53@2.20
BahrainYemen 682111xG 1.9–0.6 Value pickHome winMS 68@1.63
Thailand U23Singapore U23 671914xG 2.4–1.0 Value pickBoth teams scoreMS 56@2.01
Vietnam U23Qatar U23 362440xG 1.1–1.2 Value pickAway winMS 40@3.17
PalestineIran 91972xG 0.7–2.2 Value pickBoth teams scoreMS 52@2.16
Basque CountryVenezuela 393724xG 1.3–1.0 Value pickDrawMS 37@3.94

North & Central AmericaCONCACAF Nations LeagueHomeDrawAwayMind pick

90' Montserrat1Nicaragua2 142165 Value pickBoth teams scoreMS 56@2.00

PanamaLiga Panameña De FútbolHomeDrawAwayMind pick

19' UMECIT1Plaza Amador0 382141 Value pickAway winMS 41@2.82

ColombiaPrimera AHomeDrawAwayMind pick

19' Internacional de Bogota0Santa Fe0 342244 Value pickHome winMS 34@3.30
Atletico NacionalOnce Caldas 432235xG 1.5–1.3 Value pickHome winMS 43@2.62

HomeDrawAwayMind pick

Reboceros La PiedadRacing de Veracruz 172162xG 0.9–2.0 Value pickAway winMS 63@1.77

AustraliaAustralian ChampionshipHomeDrawAwayMind pick

Sydney UnitedSouth Melbourne 362044xG 1.2–1.3 Value pickAway winMS 44@2.60
Bayswater CitySydney Olympic 631324xG 2.2–1.3 Value pickHome winMS 63@1.83

JapanJ2 LeagueHomeDrawAwayMind pick

Fujieda MYFCVentforet Kofu 612316xG 1.8–0.8 Value pickHome winMS 61@1.84

Czech-Republic4. Liga Divizie CHomeDrawAwayMind pick

Chlumec nad CidlinouPřepeře 221860xG 1.1–2.0 Value pickAway winMS 60@2.22

Turkey2. LigHomeDrawAwayMind pick

KastamonusporŞanlıurfaspor 141670xG 1.0–2.6 Value pickBoth teams scoreMS 57@2.09
Adana 01 FK1461 Trabzon FK 622216xG 2.1–1.0 Value pickHome winMS 62@1.81
KütahyasporAnkaragücü 632215xG 2.1–0.9 Value pickHome winMS 63@1.90
Beyoğlu Yeni ÇarşıSerik Spor 631522xG 1.9–1.0 Value pickHome winMS 63@1.87
Kırklarelisporİnegölspor 372241xG 1.3–1.4 Value pickAway winMS 41@2.77

RussiaSupreme Division WomenHomeDrawAwayMind pick

Spartak Moskva WCSKA Moskva W 142561xG 0.8–1.9 Value pickAway winMS 62@1.86
Krasnodar WZvezda Perm W 642016xG 1.7–0.7 Value pickHome winMS 64@2.00

EuropeUEFA U19 Championship QualificationHomeDrawAwayMind pick

Montenegro U19Faroe Islands U19 70219xG 2.2–0.7 Value pickUnder 3.5 goalsMS 55@2.06
Czechia U19Croatia U19 442135xG 1.4–1.2 Value pickHome winMS 44@3.04
Northern Ireland U19Malta U19 692011xG 2.4–0.9 Value pickBoth teams scoreMS 54@2.06
Moldova U19Gibraltar U19 721711xG 2.9–1.2 Value pickBoth teams scoreMS 58@2.55
Greece U19Norway U19 411940xG 1.5–1.5 Value pickAway winMS 40@3.00
Sweden U19Lithuania U19 741511xG 2.5–0.9 Value pickBoth teams scoreMS 56@2.14
Denmark U19San Marino U19 771211xG 3.0–1.1 Value pickBoth teams scoreMS 59@2.24

Czech-Republic3. Liga CFL BHomeDrawAwayMind pick

ChrudimJablonec II 201565xG 1.2–2.3 Value pickAway winMS 65@1.71

WorldFriendlies ClubsHomeDrawAwayMind pick

Legia WarszawaPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 651421xG 2.1–1.1 Value pickHome winMS 65@1.74
Obolon'-BrovarNyva Vinnytsya 711811xG 2.3–0.8 Value pickBoth teams scoreMS 54@2.19
RiedFirst Vienna 671419xG 2.3–1.1 Value pickHome winMS 67@1.67

PolandII Liga EastHomeDrawAwayMind pick

Podhale Nowy TargAvia Świdnik 632413xG 2.1–0.9 Value pickHome winMS 63@1.87

LatviaVirsligaHomeDrawAwayMind pick

Valmiera BSSTukums 222157xG 1.1–2.0 Value pickAway winMS 58@1.95

ItalySerie A WomenHomeDrawAwayMind pick

Napoli WAC Milan W 241264xG 1.1–2.0 Value pickAway winMS 64@1.85

SwedenElitettanHomeDrawAwayMind pick

Häcken II WKIF Örebro W 61678xG 0.8–2.8 Value pickBoth teams scoreMS 52@2.39
Trelleborg WJitex W 591427xG 1.9–1.1 Value pickHome winMS 59@1.90

Today's value picks

150 selections priced longer than the model's fair odds, at an average of 2.34. The biggest gap: Enfield Town vs Spalding United – Draw at 3.55, rated 53% by the model against the 28% the price implies.

Around 2.34 you need about 43% winners to break even. 30-day record: 1,692 of 3,897 landed (43%). Value is measured over hundreds of bets, never one afternoon.

Playing value picks sensibly

  • Flat, small stakes – roughly 1–2% of a betting bank.
  • Singles, not combinations.
  • If the price has shortened, the edge has gone – leave it.
  • Losing runs of five or more are normal at these prices.

Where the edge comes from

Any price can be turned into a probability: 2.50 means about 40% (100 ÷ 2.50) before the bookmaker's margin. If the model rates the same outcome at 46% or more, the price is generous – and taking generous prices again and again is the only way an edge becomes a return.

Value picks are kept apart from the main predictions because they land less often. The results page tracks both, side by side.

Frequently asked questions

What qualifies as a value pick?

Mind Score × price must reach at least 1.06 – a 6% edge over the model's fair odds – at prices between 1.60 and 4.50.

Do value picks land more often?

No – less often than the main Mind picks. The point is a positive return over many small, level stakes.

Why do draws show up so much?

Bookmakers tend to price draws long in close games; when the model rates the draw well above the price, it appears here.