Over/Under 2.5 Goals Predictions yesterday
Friday 13 November: the model qualifies 101 games for over/under 2.5, at an average Mind Score of 63. The biggest share comes from Europe UEFA Nations League. Settled : 71 landed · 23 missed.
The main goals line: whichever side of 2.5 the expected-goals model leans to. Ranked by Mind Score – open any game for the full analysis.
How they finished
SpainCopa Del ReyHomeDrawAwayMind pick
FranceCoupe De FranceHomeDrawAwayMind pick
AfricaAfrica Cup Of Nations QualificationHomeDrawAwayMind pick
EuropeUEFA Nations LeagueHomeDrawAwayMind pick
North & Central AmericaCONCACAF Nations LeagueHomeDrawAwayMind pick
BoliviaCopa De La División ProfesionalHomeDrawAwayMind pick
UruguayPrimera División AperturaHomeDrawAwayMind pick
ArgentinaSuper CopaHomeDrawAwayMind pick
AustraliaAustralian ChampionshipHomeDrawAwayMind pick
UkraineDruha LigaHomeDrawAwayMind pick
WorldFriendlies ClubsHomeDrawAwayMind pick
Czech-Republic1. Liga U19HomeDrawAwayMind pick
WorldFriendliesHomeDrawAwayMind pick
RomaniaLiga III Serie 3HomeDrawAwayMind pick
RomaniaLiga III Serie 6HomeDrawAwayMind pick
BrazilParaense U20HomeDrawAwayMind pick
EgyptSecond LeagueHomeDrawAwayMind pick
OmanFA CupHomeDrawAwayMind pick
Czech-Republic3. Liga MSFLHomeDrawAwayMind pick
SerbiaPrva LigaHomeDrawAwayMind pick
EuropeUEFA U21 Championship QualificationHomeDrawAwayMind pick
Slovenia2. SNLHomeDrawAwayMind pick
Czech-Republic4. Liga Divizie DHomeDrawAwayMind pick
AustriaFrauenligaHomeDrawAwayMind pick
PolandII Liga EastHomeDrawAwayMind pick
The over/under 2.5 numbers, yesterday
101 qualifying games on Friday 13 November, average Mind Score 63. Leagues with the most entries: Europe UEFA Nations League (9), Friendlies (7), Africa Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification (7). 3 carry a price longer than the model's fair odds.
Over/under 2.5 explained
Over/Under 2.5 goals is the main goals line: three or more goals for over, two or fewer for under.
Over: 2–1, 3–0 and 2–2 win; 1–1 and 2–0 lose. Under: 0–0, 1–0, 1–1 and 2–0 win.
When the model likes it
The model compares its total goal projection with the line. Around 2.9 or more points over; 2.2 or less points under. Between those numbers it stays quiet.
Rules of thumb
- League goal rates matter – see our statistics page.
- Derbies and finals tend to run tighter than the numbers suggest.
- Unsure? Over 1.5 or under 3.5 give a goal of cushion.
Where these numbers come from
The model rates each team's attack and defence from roughly a season of results, weighted towards recent games. Those ratings give a goal projection for both sides, and the projection becomes a grid of every possible score. Every market – this one included – is read from that grid, so a match's picks never contradict each other. Bookmaker prices are shown alongside; when the Mind Score beats what the price implies, the pick carries value. Full detail on how the model works.
Prefer a ready-made ticket? Try the free slips, the accumulator or compare every market.
Frequently asked questions
What does over 2.5 mean?
Three or more goals in total.
Which leagues produce the most goals?
It shifts each season – the statistics page tracks it.
How are these over/under 2.5 picks chosen?
Every team carries attack and defence ratings. The model projects each side's goals, builds a grid of every possible score and reads the over/under 2.5 probability straight from it. Highest Mind Scores come first.
What is the Mind Score?
The model's probability for the pick, out of 100. MS 70 means roughly seven landings in ten similar games – and three misses.
Are losing picks removed?
Never. Every pick settles on the 90-minute score and stays on the Yesterday tab and the track record.