Lithuaniavs
Liechtenstein
One attack looks blunt: Liechtenstein at 0.5 xG. The 1.22 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
Full analysisMonday 16 November: the model qualifies 51 games for BTTS (GG/NG), at an average Mind Score of 56. Top of the list: Lithuania vs Liechtenstein – Not both teams to score (MS 66).
Will both sides find the net? Yes (GG) or no (NG), match by match. Ranked by Mind Score – open any game for the full analysis.
One attack looks blunt: Liechtenstein at 0.5 xG. The 1.22 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
Full analysisOne attack looks blunt: Saipa at 0.7 xG. Saipa's form is mixed (DDL, 0 W 2 D 1 L). The 1.37 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
Full analysisNeither defence rates tight enough for a clean sheet – 1.4 and 1.4 expected goals. The 1.40 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
Full analysisScoring at both ends is the model's read, with 2.7 goals projected. The 1.53 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
Full analysis51 qualifying games on Monday 16 November, average Mind Score 56. Highest still to play: Lithuania vs Liechtenstein (UEFA Nations League) – Not both teams to score, MS 66. Leagues with the most entries: Europe UEFA Nations League (10), Iran Azadegan League (8), Africa Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification (5). 8 carry a price longer than the model's fair odds.
Both teams to score (GG/NG) settles on whether each side scores at least once. GG is yes, NG is no.
GG: 1–1 and 2–1 win; 2–0 loses. NG: any clean sheet wins, including 0–0.
GG needs two attacks projecting close to a goal or more each. NG appears when one side projects well under a goal.
The model rates each team's attack and defence from roughly a season of results, weighted towards recent games. Those ratings give a goal projection for both sides, and the projection becomes a grid of every possible score. Every market – this one included – is read from that grid, so a match's picks never contradict each other. Bookmaker prices are shown alongside; when the Mind Score beats what the price implies, the pick carries value. Full detail on how the model works.
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Goal-goal (both score) and no-goal (at least one side fails to score).
Yes – they count for the team credited with the goal.
Every team carries attack and defence ratings. The model projects each side's goals, builds a grid of every possible score and reads the BTTS (GG/NG) probability straight from it. Highest Mind Scores come first.
The model's probability for the pick, out of 100. MS 70 means roughly seven landings in ten similar games – and three misses.
Never. Every pick settles on the 90-minute score and stays on the Yesterday tab and the track record.